Gujarat’s election battle has entered an interesting phase with the BJP announcing its candidates for the assembly elections. The BJP Mowdi Mandal has emboldened old jogis like Vijay Rupani, Nitin Patel, Bhupendra Singh Chudasma and Pradeep Singh Jadeja to sit at home. BJP state president CR Patil has been given full powers. If the BJP gets a clear majority in Gujarat, it seems likely that Bhupendra Patel will be the Chief Minister and his team will continue with one or two changes. Hardik Patel, who left the Congress and joined the BJP, has been given a ticket from the Veeragam seat. If the BJP government is formed, Hardik Patel will also get the post of Prime Minister. Hardik Patel’s hard work played an important role behind Congress’s bright performance in 2017. BJP’s advantage is Congress’ disadvantage. Aam Aadmi Party can create upheaval in 2022 elections.
In Gujarat elections, BJP has always shown its strength in urban seats, while Congress’s strength is in rural seats. In 2017, Congress won more seats than BJP in rural areas. Its score increased from 57 to 71, while BJP’s score dropped from 77 to 63. BJP wins most of the 42 urban seats in Gujarat. In 2017, urban seats contributed a lot to BJP’s majority. 36 out of 42 seats in cities went to BJP. This time Aam Aadmi Party is trying its strength in cities like Surat, Ahmedabad, Rajkot and Vadodara. If they break the Congress votes, BJP will benefit, but if they break the BJP seats in the cities, it may benefit the Congress. Aam Aadmi Party can turn all the calculations of elections upside down.
In the 2021 Surat Municipal Corporation elections, the Aam Aadmi Party swept the Congress and wrested the seat of the main opposition from it. After that, the Aam Aadmi Party defeated the Congress in the Gandhinagar municipal elections, which gave the BJP its first taste of power. The Aam Aadmi Party is also known as the B-team of the BJP as it mainly cuts the votes of the Congress, but the electoral math is complicated. Aam Aadmi Party’s competition is more with BJP than Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party cannot make much inroads among the Dalits and forest dwellers in the Congress vote bank. Its main target is the urban middle class, which is also the BJP’s vote bank.
While BJP is playing the Hindu card in the elections, Arvind Kejriwal is playing the soft Hindutva card very much. They consider themselves devotees of Hanumanji and can recite Hanuman Chalisa loudly. Arvind Kejriwal does not promote much about favoring Muslims, but he does a lot about visiting Hindu temples. In this way they succeed in getting the votes of Hindus in addition to urban Muslims. Aam Aadmi Party’s biggest supporter is Patidar votes. Apart from Saurashtra, Patidar votes play a crucial role on certain seats in cities like Surat and Rajkot. Mehsana is also considered a stronghold of Patidars. Aam Aadmi Party can benefit from the fact that Nitin Patel has not been given a ticket. Some disgruntled BJP leaders are privately helping the Aam Aadmi Party win.
It would be a mistake of BJP to consider Aam Aadmi Party only as a party to cut the votes of Congress. If its candidates can break the BJP’s votes in urban areas, the chances of Congress winning those seats increases, because urban Muslims are never going to vote for BJP. If the Aam Aadmi Party gets Muslim votes, it will hurt the Congress, but if it breaks the Hindu votes, it will benefit the Congress. BJP has been in power for 27 years in Gujarat, voters are getting tired of it too. During these 27 years, Congress has not been abolished but has survived. In the 2017 elections, Congress got 77 seats and 40 percent votes. If it gets 10 percent more votes and 20 more seats, the 27-year wilderness of Congress can end.
The Aam Aadmi Party does not shy away from criticizing the Congress like the BJP, but it is closer to the Congress than the BJP. BJP plays hard Hindutva card while Congress and Aam Aadmi Party play soft Hindutva game. If both BJP and Congress get about 80 seats each and Aam Aadmi Party gets about 20 seats in Gujarat elections, Aam Aadmi Party will become the kingmaker. If there is a hung assembly in Gujarat, the cost of small parties will increase, including the Aam Aadmi Party.
If Aam Aadmi Party is given a choice, it will go with Congress over BJP. In 2014, when no party got a majority in the Delhi Assembly, the Aam Aadmi Party together with the Congress ran the government for 49 days and kept the BJP out of power. If a hung assembly is formed in Gujarat, it may repeat itself. However, it cannot be said that the Aam Aadmi Party will not go with the BJP in such circumstances. So Aam Aadmi Party is called B-Team of BJP will be proved. Politics is another name for opportunism.
Even the blind can see that corruption has increased and the administration has deteriorated under BJP rule. 10 years ago Gujarat was famous for its good roads. Today, all the roads except the National Highway are in a dilapidated condition. Municipal roads resemble the surface of the moon. Corruption in the institutions of local self-government is taking its toll. The administration of Gujarat is not run by ministers but by babus. When the people were facing hardships due to the lockdown during Corona, the representatives of the public were lost and unlimited power came into the hands of the collectors.
He used to harass people by issuing new fatwas every day. Most of the ministers in Bhupendra Patel’s government are like newbies. He has no experience in administration. In the tragedy of the suspension bridge in Morbi, the pole of the Gujarat model has been exposed. Even though BJP’s condition is so dire, Gujarat Congress cannot take advantage of it. Who will be its leader? It is also not fixed. Gujarat has been neglected in Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Join India’ journey. However voters fed up with BJP can create a big miracle in Gujarat by voting for the opposition to teach BJP a lesson.