When will reality dawn and the panic begin?
The polls conducted since the general election last July, when Rishi Sunak limped across the finish line with 120 fellow MPs, paint an increasingly uniform picture. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has featured ahead of the Conservatives in eleven of the last thirteen voting intention surveys.
At best, Conservative support has proved stagnant since its 23.7 per cent showing last July. At worst, Reform has established itself as the principal receptacle for those disenchanted and indignant about Labour’s performance in government. In other words: one of the most successful electoral forces in the Western world has been relegated to third place by an upstart outfit, which only secured official approval for its name change (from the Brexit Party) in 2021.
Across recent months, no opinion poll has so seized Westminster’s attention as YouGov’s this week. In a symbolic first, the pollster recorded Reform as in the overall lead — ahead of Labour and the Conservatives by one and four points respectively.
YouGov’s data gives a sense of the trends that could dictate the future of the British right and our national politics beyond. According to the findings, Reform is leading among “Leave” voters in the 2016 Brexit referendum with 46 per cent support — 16 points ahead of its rival on the right and 35 points ahead of Labour. Reform also leads outright among male voters on 29 per cent — 9 points ahead of the Conservatives (5 points ahead of Labour).
Nigel Farage’s party, despite commentary to the contrary, trails the “main” parties among those aged 18-24. But it bests the Conservatives among both 25-49 year-olds (by 10 points) and 50-64 year-olds (5 points). The Tories edge Reform by 2 points in the 65+ bracket. Elsewhere, Reform leads the Conservatives among both the ABC1 and C2DE social grades (by 1 point and 8 points); in England (3 points), Wales (5 points) and Scotland (4 points); and in the North (14 points), Midlands (4 points), and the South of England sans London (4 points). The Conservatives still best Farage in the capital, by a full 15 points.
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Socioeconomically, demographically and geographically, Reform is marching deep into Conservative Party territory. For any opposition force at this stage in the electoral cycle, polling confers credibility — nothing more. But having surpassed the Conservatives in an array of voting intention surveys, Reform’s legitimacy as a political force — and as a threat — is no longer doubted. The Conservative Party faces the reverse fate: electoral incredibility. In 89 seats across the country, Reform finished second to Labour at the general election. In those seats at least, the logic of first past the post (FPTP) had already flipped. On the back of recent polls however, Farage is contentedly denouncing the Conservatives as an outside “spoiler” option nationwide.
Opinion polling is just one front. Last week, more than half a dozen major former Conservative donors paid five-figure sums to attend a lavish fundraiser for Reform UK. The evening reportedly generated more than £1 million in funds for the party; and it came as one Conservative source told the Guardian that the past few months appeared to be one of the worst periods ever for the party in terms of bringing in donations.
The Conservatives have been threatened before, of course. But the party’s historical longevity does not afford it any advantage in its battle with Reform. Voters do not venerate parties because they are long-lasting. In the current milieu of disillusion, Reform’s novel nature looks like an electoral asset. The charge of “inexperience”, likely to be levelled at Farage, weakens when voters value insurgents. In any case, what institutional memory is retained by this Conservative Party about previous existential bouts?
From 2015-2024, Tory leaders responded to challenge through reinvention. At the party’s last notable nadir, when Farage’s Brexit Party trumped the Conservatives in the polls, panic-stricken MPs broke the glass marked “make Boris Johnson prime minister”. No such recourse exists for a future electoral emergency. And voters have grown tired and sceptical of Conservative regeneration. The brand is simply too bruised.
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That is the essence of Reform’s opportunity — and why Kemi Badenoch’s strategy to engage with Farage on his turf has proved costly. The Conservative leader has mostly accepted the Reform critique of the last government: she claims it “talked right, but governed left”. Badenoch’s political and ideological prescriptions therefore, reflect Farage’s agenda. But aping Reform has failed to stem its appeal. That should be little surprise. Farage is uncontaminated by the record of the last government and unburdened by the Tory brand’s immense baggage. When the Reform chief vows to do something, he is not interrogated over his failure to act across fourteen years in power — a crippling criticism.
The threat Reform poses, it follows, is far graver and less perishable than that of Farage’s prior “protest” forces. Reform does not represent a bubble that a more assertive, combative Conservatism can simply burst. Badenoch’s tenure as Tory leader, if it can boast any achievements, has proved that. The Conservative leader has come for Farage, and missed.
Indeed, any assessment of the Reform-Tory battle leads inexorably to the conclusion that Badenoch has not only failed to alleviate her party’s existential predicament — she has deepened it. The Conservative Party’s polling since the July general election tracks on aggregate graphs as a bell curve. The party gained at Labour’s expense during its protracted leadership contest. It peaked as Badenoch assumed the mantle of leader. It has declined since.
New polling from Ipsos backs up this proposition. The Conservatives hold the lowest net favourability rating of any party polled at -37 — just two in ten express a favourable view (20 per cent). But Badenoch’s personal ratings are also staggeringly poor. 16 per cent of voters have a favourable opinion of her. 46 per cent, as she approaches 100 days as LOTO, have an unfavourable one.
According to Ipsos’ data, only 21 per cent consider Badenoch an “honest person”, ranking her behind Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nigel Farage. 21 per cent say she is a capable leader — a full 12 points behind Davey and Starmer in joint third place. And just 16 per cent say she is “in touch with ordinary people” — 10 points worse off than third-placed Starmer.
Public opinion of Badenoch, one must assume, remains malleable. But the toxic Conservative brand has poisoned the appeal of far more popular leaders than the incumbent. When Rishi Sunak emerged as Tory leader in October 2022, his net favourability stood at -4 — before it tumbled to -36 on the eve of the 2024 general election.
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It is often quipped that the Conservative Party has two settings: “complacency and panic”. In the past, this observation has manifested as a process, even cyclically. Theresa May complacently called a snap election. Boris Johnson was first the product of electoral dread and then the cause of it. Sunak’s premiership was a panicked clutter of reactive policy. 100 days ago, before Badenoch’s elevation as Tory leader, complacency had begun its creep back into Conservative politics based on initial assessments of Starmer’s performance as prime minister. How the vibes have shifted.
I have written before about a potential “watershed” moment in British politics, when it becomes overwhelmingly clear that Reform has established itself as a permanent fixture in the UK electoral landscape — and therefore part of the future, in some shape or form, of the British right.
Our arrival at such a moment will be guided by a close reading of the latest opinion polls. The local elections on 1 May, when the Conservatives will defend an estimated 940 seats, will mark a particularly telling juncture. (Labour and the Lib Dems are both set to defend less than 300). The pressure will be on Reform to prove they are more than an opinion poll sensation; but all signs point to another Tory bloodbath.
In this scenario, Conservative-allied parliamentarians, donors and activists will be forced to adjust to what a permanent right-wing rival means for them and their political goals. For those still institutionally or emotionally attached to the Conservative brand, the primary response will be one of sheer panic.
First, anonymous critical briefings will appear in the media, attributed to Tory insiders. Those interventions will become public; then borne of more senior sources. In some quarters, the pressure for an official Reform-Tory pact will build. That talk would be met with fierce resistance from others. As Tory tempers heighten, Badenoch could feel compelled to fast-track some policy announcements — potentially on the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) or net zero. The “red meat” will be carved thicker and dished out faster to rival any prevailing “pact” discourse. First Suella Braverman will switch. Others could well follow. Perhaps letters of no confidence will be penned, with some brandished on social media. ConservativeHome surveys would reflect activist dismay. That could prompt the Tory pretenders, including the obvious candidate on Badenoch’s frontbench, to posture more openly. The Daily Star might brandish a leaf vegetable. And all the while, the historic attachments among once supportive media organisations could melt away. (The defection of Tim Montgomerie, ConservativeHome founder, could be a portent of what is to come. GB News and the Telegraph would naturally play the role of Reform-in-the-media).
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Even at this early juncture, it is worth considering the historic precarity of Badenoch’s position as Conservative leader. In the final round of the MP voting stage of the Tory leadership contest, Badenoch received the support of just 42 colleagues (35 per cent of the parliamentary party). Some of that number, it was suggested at the time, were James Cleverly supporters seeking to thwart Robert Jenrick’s path to the members’ vote stage. In any case, a full 78 Conservative MPs — 65 per cent of the parliamentary party — backed Jenrick and Cleverly over Badenoch. Perhaps more strikingly, the current Conservative leader was the first choice of only 22 of her MPs (19 per cent), the first ballot in September found.
In the end, Badenoch won the backing of 56.5 per cent of Conservative members (53,806). Since 2001, the first leadership race held under the current rules, no Tory premier has ever been elected with a thinner mandate — either by MPs or members.
The Tory panic will be conditioned, in a significant part, by the party’s impotency. After fourteen long years in government, the Conservative Party — low on cash and credibility — has few levers to pull or buttons to press. The dashboard is flashing red, but the glass case marked “Break in case of emergency” is empty. This fact could well explain some of Badenoch’s more desperate interventions — such as her criticism of Reform UK’s “fake” membership ticker. Unfortunately for the Tory leader, it was anything but.
Since November, Badenoch has promised no changes to the cabinet for five years, and no major policies for two (a pledge now broken). Both of these pronouncements presumed the Conservative Party has lots of time. It does not. In recent weeks, Tory unease has been assuaged by a faint collective memory of Margaret Thatcher’s uninspired start as leader of the opposition. But historical allusion can only buy Badenoch so much goodwill. As she prepares to mark 100 days as Tory leader, her room for manoeuvre — and the Conservative Party’s path to recovery is narrowing.
At this moment of apparent electoral upheaval, one thing is for certain: Farage will fan the flames of Conservative fear at every stage. Against this backdrop, will Badenoch prove politically talented enough to reckon with and reverse Reform’s advance? The evidence of her first 100 days as Conservative leader would suggest not.
Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Bluesky here.
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