Falling immigration is one of Britain’s best-kept secrets. So new Office of National Statistics data on Thursday morning, showing net migration is falling significantly from its peak levels, will come as a complete surprise to most of the public.
Just one in ten people are expecting the net migration figure to be lower than the 728,000 recorded last time, according to new Focaldata research for British Future. Six out of ten people are expecting net migration to go up again, to an even higher number. The Focaldata findings also show a wide range of guesses as to what the most recent levels were, with only around 1 in 6 getting that right. A third of people overestimate the numbers while others guess the figures are lower than they are. For all of the political and media argument about the level of net migration, most people don’t notice or recall the numbers.
The fall in immigration is a fact rather than a prediction. Home Office data shows that 460,000 fewer visas were issued in 2024 than 2023 while asylum claims rose by 25,000. What the ONS will do is combine the immigration and emigration data to produce the first net migration figures for the post-election period. The big drop in visas issued means net migration will certainly be lower than the 728,000 final net migration score before the general election, probably falling by over 250,000. The new figures report the data up to December 2024 and the early 2025 visa numbers are lower again, so net migration today is likely to be running at around half of the level at the general election.
Why has falling immigration gone unnoticed?
Firstly, there is a lag in updating the headline figure. While the visa data has been public for months, it has not had much media or political attention.
The scale of public misperception of the trends should be a constructive challenge to both politicians and to broadcasters too. The BBC has conducted a nuanced and insightful review of its immigration coverage, which found no intentional bias, but some weaknesses. A key challenge was to take more time to report the substance, not just the politics, particularly providing more context to help audiences understand the trends and the arguments. These misperceptions of what has been happening show why this matters.
Perceptions of immigration respond to political and media cues. When immigration is rising, this may generate a sense of an increased pace of change in particular areas. It is more difficult to consider how and why a reduced rate of immigration would be noticed. What people can perceive is the presence of people born abroad, and the overall levels of ethnic diversity, among those born in Britain as well as new arrivals. A reduction in the level of change is hard to notice.
The significant drop in immigration for work and study has been accompanied by a rise in asylum numbers. Small boats crossing the Channel are a public priority when it comes to controlling immigration. The public significantly overestimates the proportion of migration that is asylum, with a large share believing this is the main reason for immigration. That reflects both a disparity in media and political attention to asylum and small boats; and also the public’s preference for control over immigration, which is seen to be lacking in the Channel.
If net migration declines to around 450,000, then to around 350,000, this is still a high level of inward migration. Some will suggest the public would notice a much bigger fall. Yet it is unclear whether the difference between net migration of 150,000 or 300,000 would be widely noticed – particularly if numbers arriving by small boats remain unchanged.
The immigration debate of the last fortnight has mostly looked backwards. It has been framed by the challenges of the exceptionally high net migration – which peaked at over 900,000 – of the last parliament. There were different reasons for those high levels, including the response to emergencies in Hong Kong and Ukraine, as well as government choices to liberalise migration rules for work and study for those coming from outside the EU. The unanticipated scale of migration, for example on the social care visa, then led to restrictions in December 2023. These have been maintained by this government, which has contributed to the significant fall.
Political leaders should seize the opportunity provided by falling net migration to open a different immigration debate. This should look forwards to how we manage the pressures and gains of migration for the economy, infrastructure and public services. Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper should build on the white paper by reporting annually to parliament on the trends, impacts and future policies on immigration. There should be active plans to manage the migration we keep, in a way that is fair for those coming to Britain and the communities they join. Those who want to reduce migration more drastically should offer more detailed plans as to how they will make their proposed numbers add up.
Such changes might help to make immigration a more ‘normal’ area of public policy, like housing or taxation. It could also dial down the temperature of our heated and polarised immigration debate, which is often dominated by those with the strongest views. That would align with the kind of ‘quieter’ politics that Keir Starmer promised on entering office. It may also chime with much of the public, who are ‘balancers’ on immigration, seeing both pressures that need to be managed alongside gains for our economy and public services.
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