News diary 19 – 25 February: Final Assange extradition hearing, two years since Ukraine invasion

A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.

Leading the week

The final hearing in the long-running extradition case of Julian Assange is due to be heard at the High Court on Tuesday and Wednesday (20 and 21 February).

The founder of Wikileaks has spent nearly five years in Belmarsh prison following his arrest outside the Ecuadorian Embassy, where he lived for seven years to avoid extradition to the US on charges of hacking Government computers and espionage; material released by Wikileaks contained thousands of documents containing classified information about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Supporters of Assange, who are expected to assemble outside the High Court on both days, argue the charges are politically motivated, and that Assange was doing his job as a journalist. Should his appeal fail, he faces up to 175 years in jail in the US for charges under the espionage act, with his wife fearing he will die behind bars. The matter has been further complicated by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese calling for Assange’s return to the country of his birth.

The NHS faces major disruption once again next week as junior doctors in both England and Wales prepare to begin extended strike action. Doctors in Wales begin a 72-hour walkout at 7am on Wednesday (22 February) in protest at the Welsh Government’s most recent pay offer of 5%, which the British Medical Association (BMA) derides as a real-terms pay cut. Then, at 7am on Thursday (23 February), over 46,000 junior doctors in England walk out for the tenth round of action in the BMA’s dispute with the UK Government.

The long-running dispute has dragged on as the union seeks “full pay-restoration” for real-terms declines in pay since 2008/9, which it says amounts to 26.1% after taking inflation into account. The strike, potentially the last under the current mandate, lasts until 7am on 28 February and comes after the BMA claimed that the Government failed to meet a deadline of 8 February to present a “credible” pay offer which would add to the 8.8% rise already awarded to junior doctors last year. Union leaders have since offered to suspend the strikes in return for further negotiating time.

With households still feeling the pinch as the Budget approaches, Thursday’s confirmation that the UK has entered recession added to the pressure on Jeremy Hunt to deliver some good news on 6 March. An unexpected hold in inflation on Wednesday does, however, augur well for the prospect of interest rate cuts in the coming months, and there’s expected to be another boost on Friday (23 February) when Ofgem announces the next adjustment to its energy price cap. Analysts are predicting that bills could fall by as much as £300 in the next quarter, and while the change may not be directly the Chancellor’s doing any positive news will be welcomed as Hunt and Rishi Sunak battle to meet those economic targets.

And as MPs return to Westminster following an event-filled recess, over in the House of Lords the current stage of scrutiny of the government’s Rwanda bill concludes on Monday (19 February). 

The bill received criticism from all sides of the House over the first two days of debate this week, though an attempt by former Labour frontbencher Shami Chakrabarti backed by Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby to allow the UN oversight of deportations was dropped on Wednesday. But with nearly 100 amendments to consider before the bill can proceed to the next stage – when peers vote on what form the bill will take when it’s passed back to the House of Commons – ministers should probably brace for more headaches over the flagship immigration policy.

Looking abroad

The Republican primary on Saturday (24 February) in Nikki Haley’s home state of South Carolina looks increasingly like it may end up being decisive if she is to stand a chance of maintaining a viable challenge to Donald Trump’s nomination as the party’s candidate this November.

After a disappointing result in New Hampshire and her brutal loss in the Nevada primary, Haley is staring down the barrel of another embarrassment in the Palmetto State next week that may test her resolve for staying in what is becoming an increasingly bitter and likely unwinnable contest against Trump.

After Haley was heckled last year when she appeared at CPAC, she is skipping this year’s MAGA-centric gathering, which runs Thursday through Saturday (22-24 February). In addition to Trump, whose remarks are scheduled for the final day, speakers this year include former UK prime minister Liz Truss as well as Nayib Bukele, the recently re-elected strongman leader of El Salvador, and Argentina’s new anarcho-capitalist president Javier Milei.

The conflict in Ukraine, meanwhile, is likely to remain in focus in the runup to the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Saturday (24 February) as President Zelenskyy seeks to counter signs of “solidarity fatigue”, notably among House Republicans in the United States.

Next week also marks the 10-year anniversary of the Maidan revolution that saw then-President Viktor Yanukovych flee Kyiv on 21 February a day after Russian forces began their operation to annex Crimea on 20 February. Dozens of pro-European protesters in Maidan were killed by pro-regime snipers in the bloodiest day of the months-long standoff over Yanukovych’s last-minute decision not to sign an association agreement with the European Union.

Kyiv’s ongoing military and diplomatic struggles will loom large as G20 foreign ministers – including Russia’s Sergey Lavrov – gather in Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday and Wednesday (20-21 February). There have been suggestions ahead of the gathering that UK foreign secretary David Cameron, who’s said to be also planning to attend a UN Security Council meeting scheduled for Friday (23 February), could be preparing for a muscular encounter with his Russian counterpart. The death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, announced by the country’s federal prison service on Friday, is now also likely to be a topic of discussion at the meeting.

Finally, space history will made next week if the IM-1 mission‘s Odysseus lander successfully touches down on the Moon as planned on Thursday (22 February) and becomes the first commercial mission to achieve a soft landing on the lunar surface.

The mission, which launched on Thursday aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, is the second attempt this year by a private company after Astrobotic’s Peregrine mission suffered a propulsion system failure that prevented it from attempting its lunar landing. Assuming all goes to plan, Odysseus will touch down near the Moon’s south pole, an area of particular interest for deposits of water ice that will be important for NASA’s future manned Artemis missions.

Also look out for

February 19

Grant Shapps answers departmental questions as House of Commons returns from recess
Tim Davie at select committee session on BBC Across the UK implementation
Read Sea naval mission “deadline” at EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting
Trial of Devon police officer Matthew Tregale begins
ITV airs Covid drama Breathtaking
Sergey Lavrov visits Cuba

February 20

Donald Trump town hall from South Carolina airs on Fox News
Chris Heaton-Harris at select committee session on Windsor Framework
Alex Salmond at select committee session on intergovernmental relations
Food and environmental agency heads address NFU Conference
Champions League round of 16 continues

February 21

PMQs and SNP motion on Gaza ceasefire in the House of Commons
Final pre-Budget public sector finance statistics
Met Office at select committee session on extreme weather
Bristol City council meeting on Edward Colston statue future
G20 foreign ministers meeting
Porto v Arsenal in Champions League round of 16
Formula One preseason testing begins

February 22

Donald Trump at NRB Presidential Forum
Opening statements in trial of armourer over death on Rust movie set
Ofgem chief at future energy event
London Assembly Mayor’s Question Time
Sentencing of man guilty of harassing Barry Gardiner MP
British Transport Police PEEL report
UN Security Council discusses situation in the Middle East

February 23

UN General Assembly and UN Security Council discuss situation in Ukraine
Donald Trump at Black Conservative Federation Honors Gala
Michael Gove addresses CCA Local Government conference
Welsh Conservative Party Spring Conference
Statistics on Births in England and Wales (2022)
Trial of men charged with murder of Jam Master Jay expected to conclude
India v England 4^th test begins

February 24

Two years ago: Russia invaded Ukraine
UK leads Joint Warrior NATO exercise
CPAC final general session
Reform UK Spring Rally
Screen Actors Guild Awards
Premier League season continues
Ireland v Wales and Scotland v England in Six Nations third round
Saudi Arabia hosts world’s richest horse race

February 25

Chelsea v Liverpool in Carabao Cup final
David Attenborough’s Secret World of Sound airs
Early voting begins in Russia presidential election
Parliamentary elections in Belarus

Statistics, reports and results

February 19

Rightmove House Price Index
Amnesty International report on suppressing dissent in Russia

February 20

Register of political donations
People’s Bank of China loan prime rate announcement
Results from: Barclays, Carrefour, InterContinental Hotels, Home Depot, BHP Group, Medtronic

February 21

DWP cold weather payments
OECD quarterly growth figures
Results from: BAE Systems, Glencore, Rio Tinto, Heathrow, Nvidia

February 22

Divorces in England and Wales (2022)
NEET statistics
Flash UK PMI
EU inflation
Human Rights Watch report on transnational repression
Results from: Lloyds Banking Group, Iberdrola, Repsol, Rolls-Royce, Mercedes-Benz, Qantas, WPP Group, Mondi, Nestle

February 23