Reform UK would win a majority of a seats in the House of Commons if a general election was held tomorrow, a new poll suggests.
Nigel Farage’s party would win 377 seats, with the Labour and Conservative parties both experiencing a dramatic drop in support.
According to a new MRP poll from communications agency PLMR, conducted by Electoral Calculus, Reform UK would secure 31 per cent of the national vote. Labour would receive 22 per cent and the Conservatives 19 per cent.
The poll of over 5,000 British adults points to a seismic reshaping of parliament. The Labour Party would see its representation fall from 412 to 118 seats, while the Conservatives are predicted to hold just 29 seats, falling behind the Liberal Democrats, who are projected to win 69 seats.
The result would make Farage prime minister without the need for a coalition.
The poll indicates that economic insecurity remains the number one driving factor across the UK, with 54 per cent of voters citing the cost of living and the economy as a key issue driving their voting intention. This is closely followed by the NHS (46 per cent) and immigration (38 per cent).
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Among those who intend to vote for Reform UK, 83 per cent point to immigration as a key factor driving their vote, while 57 per cent cite the economy as a central issue.
The MRP poll, based on constituency-level voting intention, suggests Reform UK’s dominance is clearest in post-industrial and coastal areas, as well as suburban constituencies where economic anxiety and immigration have overshadowed traditional party allegiances.
The poll data also suggest a link between financial outlook and voting intention. Voters who expect their personal financial situation to worsen are more likely to support Reform UK. Those who are optimistic about their finances are more likely to lean towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
The MRP poll of 5180 British adults took place from 10-17 June 2025.
Kevin Craig, CEO and founder of PLMR, commented that there are still four years until the next election and that the incumbent Labour government has time to address voter concerns. “We see from PLMR’s polling that the economy, the NHS and immigration are the top three priorities for voters. The government has a story to tell on all three”, he said.
Craig pointed to stabilising economic conditions, a 24 per cent increase in enforced returns on immigration since July and NHS waiting times hitting a two-year low.
He added: “Reform will have a record on bins and potholes in local government to defend over the coming years, so what Reform in power looks like will no longer be an abstract concept. When it comes to crunch time for voters, they’ll want a serious, experienced government that’s proven it can handle the issues that matter to people’s lives.”
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, commented: “This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon. The ‘big two’ established parties now only command the support of 41% of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.”
He added: “If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform. As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front.”
Josh Self is editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Bluesky here and X here.
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