• Publish Your article
  • Editorial Policy
  • Contact
  • Advertise
Friday, October 17, 2025
No Result
View All Result
UK Herald
  • Home
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    • All
    • Sports
    England rugby stadium Twickenham given new name after more than 100 years in shock new deal

    England rugby stadium Twickenham given new name after more than 100 years in shock new deal

    Peter Morgan dead at 65: Former Wales and Lions rugby star who became a politician passes away as club pays tribute

    Peter Morgan dead at 65: Former Wales and Lions rugby star who became a politician passes away as club pays tribute

    Horse racing tips: Unexposed Group 1 contender can stun the big guns at 14-1

    Horse racing tips: Unexposed Group 1 contender can stun the big guns at 14-1

    Woman ‘raped seven times by two French rugby stars who left her riddled with bite marks & with horror injuries’

    Woman ‘raped seven times by two French rugby stars who left her riddled with bite marks & with horror injuries’

    Horse racing tips: Gary Moore’s charge can gain revenge after falling last time out

    Horse racing tips: Gary Moore’s charge can gain revenge after falling last time out

    Ian Buckett dead at 56: Former Wales rugby star who was ‘admired and feared equally’ dies as tributes pour in

    Ian Buckett dead at 56: Former Wales rugby star who was ‘admired and feared equally’ dies as tributes pour in

    Horse racing tips: Bash the bookies with these longshots including 9-1 fancy

    Horse racing tips: Bash the bookies with these longshots including 9-1 fancy

    Shayne Philpott dead at 58 – New Zealand All Blacks rugby legend dies after suffering ‘medical event’

    Shayne Philpott dead at 58 – New Zealand All Blacks rugby legend dies after suffering ‘medical event’

    Horse racing tips: This 7-1 chance appears to have been laid out for race he won last year

    Horse racing tips: This 7-1 chance appears to have been laid out for race he won last year

  • Lifestyle
    • All
    • Fashion
    • food
    • Health
    • Travel
    The exact dates you need to book off in 2026 to get 56 days of holiday

    The exact dates you need to book off in 2026 to get 56 days of holiday

    Italy’s ‘less glitzy’ gateway destination named one of 2026’s best places to visit

    Italy’s ‘less glitzy’ gateway destination named one of 2026’s best places to visit

    This historic Japanese city is hiking its tourist tax by 900% to stop you coming

    This historic Japanese city is hiking its tourist tax by 900% to stop you coming

    Major airline removes carry-on bag sizers from boarding gates

    Major airline removes carry-on bag sizers from boarding gates

    Qatar Airways Al Mourjan Business Lounge review: ‘It doesn’t get bigger than this…’

    Qatar Airways Al Mourjan Business Lounge review: ‘It doesn’t get bigger than this…’

    What is Bleach or Facial, Best for Skin?

    What is Bleach or Facial, Best for Skin?

    Tourists are flocking to a mind-bending Chinese megacity where Google Maps doesn’t work

    Tourists are flocking to a mind-bending Chinese megacity where Google Maps doesn’t work

    An ESTA change has just made travelling to America more expensive for Brits

    An ESTA change has just made travelling to America more expensive for Brits

    The best Maldives alternatives that are cheaper — and three are in Europe

    The best Maldives alternatives that are cheaper — and three are in Europe

    Italy strikes for Gaza: What tourists need to know amid travel disruption in Rome and Milan

    Italy strikes for Gaza: What tourists need to know amid travel disruption in Rome and Milan

    Trending Tags

    • Golden Globes
    • Mr. Robot
    • MotoGP 2017
    • Climate Change
    • Flat Earth
  • Health
  • Opinion
  • Science
  • Tech
  • Crypto
  • Travel
  • Real Estate
  • Sports
  • More
    • Press Release
UK Herald
No Result
View All Result

Report into Conservative defeat warns pact with Nigel Farage would be ‘catastrophic mistake’

by Justin Marsh
September 30, 2024
0
0
SHARES
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterReddit


A report into the Conservative Party’s historic election defeat in July has warned those vying to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader not to pursue a “pact” with Reform UK or Nigel Farage. 

The report, produced by centre-right think tank Onward, professes to highlight a “route back” for the Conservative Party after it was reduced to 121 MPs at the recent election.

It argues a future Tory leader must repair the party’s damaged reputation on trust, competence and immigration — and warns there are no “easy answers” that will lead to an electoral revival in the short term. 

Onward says its Breaking Blue report is the largest UK post-election study of its kind, with the findings drawn from comprehensive quantitative and qualitative research with over 24,000 participants.

According to the report, the Conservatives suffered a defeat across all major demographic divides at the last election — including age, ethnicity, social class, and Brexit preference. 

“[The Conservative] coalition fragmented in all different directions”, the report says, “to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform and to those not voting”. Ultimately, the party lost 23 per cent of its vote to Reform UK and 7 per cent to the Liberal Democrats. 

Meanwhile, the “cross-over” point where voters are more likely to vote Conservative rose to a historic 64. 

The report urges a future Conservative leader to address the issues associated with party’s narrow support base, specifically the “demographic and generational ‘pipeline’ problem by seeking to win back voters in their 40s and 50s as well as reaching out to younger voters.”

However, the report adds: “The party’s voting base is the oldest it has ever been, and it must focus on winning back these older, more natural voters first. The party simply won’t have any chance of winning again until it can convince 50-64 year olds to vote Conservative again.”

***Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest news and analysis.***

The report reflects on the political impact of landmark events such as “Partygate” and the mini-budget, which consecutively led to the downfall of ex-prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. The report argues that, following these events, “the party’s reputation for competence and honesty was damaged beyond repair” and that the 2024 election was in effect “unwinnable”.

“Recovery for Rishi Sunak essentially impossible”, the report attests. 

The election campaign, however, also saw the promulgation of additional negative new stories, such as Sunak’s infamous exit from D-Day commemorations, which further dampened the Conservative Party’s prospects. 

The report introduces the “seven segments” of the British electorate, based on economic and cultural beliefs of voters, showing how Boris Johnson’s 2019 coalition was built and, ultimately, collapsed. They are, in full: Thatcherites, Christian Democrats, Right-Liberals, Social Democrats, the Traditional Left, the New Left and the Mainstream.

The report suggests that winning electoral coalitions are built when one of the major two parties wins its own base, together with a plurality of Mainstream voters and some inroads into the other side’s base.

Onward’s analysis found that the coalition constricted by Boris Johnson in 2019 was “ideologically broad” and contained “inherent tensions” that the Tories proved unable to manage in government. 

The report reads: “Managing to hold together this electoral coalition was a difficult proposition given that the glue of anti-Corbyn and pro-getting Brexit done was gone by 2024, but could have been possible with the right policies, successful implementation and a stronger economy.”

It adds: “What happened in July 2024 was a simultaneous collapse of different voter blocs.

“Therefore to build a coalition to win a majority in the future, the party must focus on rebuilding the electoral coalition of segments that helped Thatcher, Major, Cameron and Johnson to victory. This is to combine strong support amongst segments that have historically leaned right on either their economic or cultural beliefs with plurality support amongst Mainstream swing voters.”

The report goes on to lay out new priorities for the leader, with the foremost being the need to rebuild competence and trust.

But the report also says that “uniting the right” via some electoral pact with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would not be enough to secure a commons majority. Rather, a future Conservative leader is urged to target Liberal Democrat and Reform defectors simultaneously. Simply chasing one group or the other, it is argued, will not be enough to win a majority. 

“Aggregating the Conservative and Reform vote in each constituency”, the report lays out, “would produce a total of 302 seats — significantly more than the current Conservative seat share, but still 24 short of an overall majority.”

The report also explains: “Less than a third (31%) of Reform defectors want the parties to unite, but nearly half (42%) of Liberal Democrat defectors and over a third (36%) of Labour defectors want the Tories to distance themselves from Reform.”

Commenting on the publication of the report, unveiled at Conservative conference on Sunday, Director of Onward Sebastian Payne said: “Breaking Blue puts forward a clear path for the next Tory leader to take: repair the Conservatives’ reputation on trust on competence on immigration, public services and reducing taxes for lower and middle income earners.

“There are no easy answers — and any deal with Nigel Farage or Reform would be a catastrophic mistake.”

James Kanagasooriam, Chief Research Officer of Focaldata said: “Breaking Blue articulates in a detailed way what went wrong for the Conservative Party. The findings are sobering for anyone on the centre-right, as the 2024 Conservative defeat looks even worse with further time and analysis. 

“The Conservative Party has no divine right to exist, and the surveys and qualitative work suggest that we may be approaching a moment of deep fragmentation in the electorate and deep pessimism, from which it can be hard to curate a vision of Britain that can unite people. There is a pathway, but it is narrow and will require great care and courage from the next Conservative leader.”

Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on X/Twitter here.

Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest news and analysis.

The post Report into Conservative defeat warns pact with Nigel Farage would be ‘catastrophic mistake’ appeared first on Politics.co.uk.





Source link

Related Posts

Alistair Strathern: ‘Play in Healthcare Week – making every child’s right to play a reality’

Alistair Strathern: ‘Play in Healthcare Week – making every child’s right to play a reality’

by Justin Marsh
October 16, 2025
0

A child facing surgery, having a blood test or needing an MRI shouldn’t have to feel terrified. Yet too often they do, unless they’re lucky enough to be in a hospital with...

Frontline NHS services have no money to spare – here’s where to find it

Frontline NHS services have no money to spare – here’s where to find it

by Justin Marsh
October 14, 2025
0

As party conference season concludes and MPs and peers return to Westminster, attention will turn to the next major date in the political calendar: 26 November – budget day. In the midst...

Justice delayed is justice denied: Fujitsu must be barred from new government contracts

Justice delayed is justice denied: Fujitsu must be barred from new government contracts

by Justin Marsh
October 12, 2025
0

In a week when the UK government responds to the Horizon inquiry report recommendations, it is important to take stock of where we are. The Post Office Horizon scandal destroyed lives. Over...

Immigration crackdown necessary for ‘open, generous, tolerant’ society, Mahmood says

Immigration crackdown necessary for ‘open, generous, tolerant’ society, Mahmood says

by Justin Marsh
October 10, 2025
0

Immigrants will be required to meet stricter conditions in order to earn the right to stay in the UK permanently, under a new government crackdown. Labour has announced that a government consultation...

Clive Lewis: ‘Robin Cook showed us politics at its most serious. Labour has lost that balance’

Clive Lewis: ‘Robin Cook showed us politics at its most serious. Labour has lost that balance’

by Justin Marsh
October 8, 2025
0

Delivering the Robin Cook memorial lecture was one of the greatest privileges of my time in Parliament. But it wasn’t just a privilege – it was a burden too. The name Robin...

Obama in London: Have Starmer and Labour already shown they were listening?

Obama in London: Have Starmer and Labour already shown they were listening?

by Justin Marsh
October 6, 2025
0

They say never meet your heroes, but I have to disagree. Last week in London I met president Barack Obama. He radiated charisma, charm and patience to all the many people he encountered....

Next Post
Tourists in Rome keep making the same blunder as Emily in Paris

Tourists in Rome keep making the same blunder as Emily in Paris

Popular News

Alistair Strathern: ‘Play in Healthcare Week – making every child’s right to play a reality’

Alistair Strathern: ‘Play in Healthcare Week – making every child’s right to play a reality’

October 16, 2025
The exact dates you need to book off in 2026 to get 56 days of holiday

The exact dates you need to book off in 2026 to get 56 days of holiday

October 16, 2025
Frontline NHS services have no money to spare – here’s where to find it

Frontline NHS services have no money to spare – here’s where to find it

October 14, 2025

Intelligent pricing: Lessons in precision from Aller Media Nordic

October 14, 2025
How to Drive Past Horses Safely on the Road

How to Drive Past Horses Safely on the Road

October 13, 2025
Italy’s ‘less glitzy’ gateway destination named one of 2026’s best places to visit

Italy’s ‘less glitzy’ gateway destination named one of 2026’s best places to visit

October 13, 2025
Justice delayed is justice denied: Fujitsu must be barred from new government contracts

Justice delayed is justice denied: Fujitsu must be barred from new government contracts

October 12, 2025
UK Herald

All Rights Reserved © UK HERALD - The Voice of UK

Important Links

  • Publish Your article
  • Editorial Policy
  • Contact
  • Advertise

...

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Politics
  • UK News
  • Business
  • Science
  • National
  • Entertainment
  • Gaming
  • Sports
  • Fashion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Health
  • Food

All Rights Reserved © UK HERALD - The Voice of UK