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The UK-EU summit, convened today at Lancaster House in London, has triggered a deluge of hot takes, soundbites and frenetic criticisms from those opposition parties looking to exploit Keir Starmer’s Brexit “reset”.
The dustbin of history has been plundered for rhetoric consigned, or so it was thought, to a fraught past. For those of a certain political persuasion, the summit and corresponding agreement mark the latest in a long line of “Brexit betrayals”. Opponents of the government speak variously but uniformly of “surrender”, of “selling out” and of “capitulation”.
Years may have elapsed since the “Brexit wars”, fought across parliaments and election campaigns, were won. But the landscape of our politics is riven with the scars of that period. At an unsettling pace then, politicians have returned to their old stations. A full regiment of Hiroo Onodas has spilled out of the jungle onto a deserted battlefield to arrange the reopening of hostilities.
The difference being that Onoda — a Japanese soldier who refused to believe the Second World War was over until 1974 — stood on the losing side.
It is Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary who failed to stop Brexit, who is today in the ascendant. Opening the first summit of its kind this morning, the prime minister said the UK and EU could now focus on “looking forward, not backwards”.
Sat opposite Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, Starmer commented that the gathering “marks a new era in our relationship.”
He added: “We on this side are following through on what the British public voted for last year and the mission of this government to deliver security and renewal for our country and improve the lives of working people…
“That is what today is all about, moving on from stale old debates, looking forward, not backwards, focusing on what we can do together to deliver in the national interest.”
***This article first appeared in a special edition of Politics.co.uk’s Politics@Lunch newsletter, centring on the UK-EU summit. Sign-up for free and never miss our daily briefing.***
In a press release this afternoon, No 10 said the prime minister’s deal would add £9 billion to Britain’s economy by 2040, while cutting bills for shoppers and bolstering border security.
As part of the deal, a new security and defence partnership has been agreed which, No 10 says, will pave the way for the UK defence industry to participate in the EU’s proposed new £150 billion defence fund. The government is also touting a new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement, as well as protections for British steel exports from EU rules and restrictive tariffs.
Meanwhile, talks are continuing on a youth mobility scheme to allow people aged 18-30 in the UK and the EU to move freely between countries for a limited period of time. According to Downing Street, the UK will also “enter talks” about access to EU “facial images data” for the first time — enhancing the UK’s ability to “catch dangerous criminals”.
It is, of course, the concessions that have attracted the greatest share of opposition disdain from both Conservative and Reform UK sources. On the issue of fishing rights, Britain has now agreed to open its waters for a further 12 years to EU boats — more than the five years the UK negotiating team, according to reports, initially offered.
Nigel Farage has said the concession “will be the end of the fishing industry”, while Kemi Badenoch argues Britain has become a “rule-taker from Brussels once again.”
The responses emanating from both the Reform and Conservative camps point to the dominant dynamic between the two opposition parties. Their respective criticisms ostensibly take aim at the government — but they also interact and compete with each other.
The Tories, recent polling and the local elections suggest, are losing the fight on the right. Farage commands the attention of the UK media in a fashion that is typically reserved for the de jure opposition chief. As such, the Conservative Party has to go further in its rhetoric to command coverage and secure a place in the debate. Badenoch duly indulges in a short-term hit of relevance. But the comedown is often crippling.
The risk for both parties, and for the Conservatives in particular, is that this inexorable spiral widens the gap between the stances adopted, successively and over time, and the mainstream of public opinion, which remains relatively static and may even shift in the opposite direction.
The “Brexit reset” debate is a clear case in point. According to YouGov polling conducted for the fifth anniversary of Brexit — 31 January this year — just three in ten Britons (30 per cent) now say that it was right for the UK to vote to leave the EU. That is compared to 55 per cent who say it was wrong for the country to vote for Brexit in 2016. This finding, YouGov commented at the time, was the lowest proportion of the public saying that Britain was right to vote to leave since the pollster began asking this question in the aftermath of the referendum in 2016.
On top of this, more than six in ten Britons (62 per cent) said that Brexit has so far been more of a failure — against just one in ten (11 per cent) who felt that it has been more of a success.
Such is the trap set for Badenoch and Farage in the Brexit reset debate. In fighting each other, the Conservatives and Reform risk losing sight of the bigger picture.
There are also stricter, shorter-term political risks. Badenoch’s tweet first, ask questions later approach to opposition came seriously unstuck when it was enacted against the UK-India trade deal. Her criticism of the national insurance exemption in the agreement was soon undermined by a Financial Times scoop that highlighted her acquiescence to it as trade secretary. Badenoch’s prominent position in the last government means she is exposed to revelations such as this.
Moreover, by refighting the Brexit war in this manner, Badenoch risks foregrounding her own party’s historic failures. After all, how are the Conservatives supposed to signal that they have changed, while addressing old issues using the same stale and overly performative rhetoric? In so relentlessly ploughing old, barren political ground, the Conservative leader tacitly admits that her party is wanting for new ideas.
Starmer’s positioning is informed by a calculation that Britain has had enough of the Brexit wars. Badenoch is looking to re-conscript the country into “Remain” and “Leave” camps. The tactic misunderstands both public opinion and the Conservative Party’s (lack of) credibility on the UK’s relationship with the European Union.
The Tory leader’s attempt to tack to the eurosceptic right of Farage is also doomed to fail. It will not be long before the internecine struggles that characterised the 2016-2020 Brexit wars recommence. I give it a matter of hours before the Reform UK leader, possibly in the House of Commons, points to “betrayals” from the sitting Labour government — but also past Conservative administrations. What gain is to be found for Badenoch when the debate takes this inevitable turn?
Speaking in Brussels last week to an international conclave of centre-right parties, Badenoch summed up her approach to opposition: “I’m the new kid on the block. I’m the insurgent now. I’m the underdog, and I need to remind people that the Conservative Party which disappointed them is not me, and we are the ones who are the ones who can channel the anger and the frustration.”
The Conservative leader considers her coarse criticisms tantamount to insurgency.
But hitting the same notes harder, faster and more intensely will not convince sceptical voters that some tired tune is worth listening to. Rather, it may convince the public that its original conceptions, formed across fourteen years of Conservative government, are justified.
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Lunchtime soundbite
‘In this spirit we have designed the roadmap we are working on together and I think it shows that we are working towards a friendly cooperation that is of benefit for both sides of the Channel’
— Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said today’s agreement represented a “new beginning for old friends”.
Now try this…
‘How has Britain’s economy fared since Brexit? The five charts underpinning the UK-EU summit’
Via the Guardian.
‘Over half of Labour’s 2024 vote is considering switching to Lib Dem or Greens’
PoliticsHome reports.
‘What’s in a name? Nigel Farage forces Westminster think tank to rebrand’
The Reform think tank will now be known as Re:State, Politico reports.
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The post Kemi Badenoch will lose any ‘Brexit war’ she starts appeared first on Politics.co.uk.
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